April 2020 - Phoenix Arizona Market Update
Phoenix, Arizona Real Estate Market Update
April 15, 2020
By: Karl Freund
Well, needless to say April 2020 has been an interesting month so far. You know I will always keep it real and I'm very open and transparent about what is happening in the Phoenix real estate market.
For the first time in my nearly 20 year career I can say that I really don't know. I can usually tell you with relative certainty what is going on just by looking at the numbers or how the market "feels" - I know, very subjective.
This time around it's different. There are so many people on the sidelines and at each end of the spectrum that I can't tell what market we are in.
Yes, there are still buyers. Yes, there are still sellers. Yes, real estate in Phoenix at is an "essential business" and we are still working, albeit slightly differently these days.
When I look at the inventory it's up about 50% from just a month ago (beginning of March). The cancellation rate of contracts was around 60% as people rightfully feared the worst. That inventory has hit the market again.
The offers that I'm seeing on my listings are roughly 10-15% below the list price. Perhaps it's savvy buyers looking for a deal, or perhaps that's an indication of where the prices could land in the near-term.
Usually I start to reference data right around this point in the article, but this time I won't. Why? Because the sold data we do have is the result of activity that started at least 30 days ago - before we were told to shelter in place or had a clue what was about to happen.
Here is my professional recommendation - and I'm going to save this post to remind myself what I said in a year from now...
If you have to buy, go ahead and buy knowing we don't know how this will end up. It's slightly risky - but that risk could pay off and you could score a great house at a great price.
If you have to sell, do so now and do it quickly. I hate uncertainty, and that's exactly what we are up against. We simply don't know what life will look like after all of this plays out. Expect offers below asking price.
If you can wait - do that. Most of these market fluctuations will at least have direction in the not so distant future and then we can at least somewhat predict what to do.
Until then, be safe.
Kenneth James Realty